Friday, July 31, 2020

Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. (OHI) Dividend Stock Analysis

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. (OHI). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Omega Healthcare Investors Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in income-producing healthcare facilities, mainly long-term care facilities located in the United States.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

OHI is trading at a discount to only 3.) above. When also considering the NPV MMA Differential, the stock is trading at a 12.8% discount to its calculated fair value of $35.76. OHI earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

OHI earned one Star in this section for 3.) above. OHI earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 2003 and has increased its dividend payments for 18 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

OHI earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of $2,866. This amount is in excess of the $1,700 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as OHI has. The stock's current yield of 8.59% exceeds the 2.74% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.

Peers: The company’s peer group includes: Healthpeak Properties, Inc. (PEAK) with a 5.4% yield, Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated (HR) with a 4.1% yield and Ventas, Inc. (VTR) with a 4.6%.

Conclusion: OHI earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned one Star in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of three Stars. This quantitatively ranks OHI as a 3-Star Hold stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $39.12 before OHI's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $1,700 minimum that I look for in a stock with 18 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 6.8%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $1,700 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is -1.8%. This dividend growth rate is lower than the 0.8% used in this analysis, thus providing a slight margin of safety. OHI has a risk rating of 2.25 which classifies it as a Medium risk stock.

The stock is currently trading below my calculated fair value of $35.76. As a REIT OHI is required by law to pay out 90% of its earnings. Unfortunately, its Free Cash Flow payout is 108% (down from 111%). This has been one of my favorite REITs over the years. However, I will wait for its Free Cash Flow to improve adding to my position.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in OHI (0.6% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio).

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Tags: OHI, HCP, HR, VTR,