Friday, June 8, 2018

Phillips 66 (PSX) Dividend Stock Analysis

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Phillips 66 (PSX). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Phillips 66, spun off from ConocoPhillips in 2012, is one of the largest independent refiners and marketers of petroleum products in the U.S.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

PSX is trading at a discount to only 2.) above. When also considering the NPV MMA Differential, the stock is trading at a 12.2% discount to its calculated fair value of $135.51. PSX earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

PSX earned two Stars in this section for 2.) and 3.) above. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. PSX earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1934 and has increased its dividend payments for 18 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

PSX earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of $2,891. This amount is in excess of the $1,700 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as PSX has. If PSX grows its dividend at 12.3% per year, it will take 1 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 3.01%. PSX earned a check for the Key Metric 'Years to >MMA' since its 1 years is less than the 5 year target.

Peers: The company's peer group includes: Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) with a 2.3% yield, Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) with a 2.6% yield and Chevron Corporation (CVX) with a 3.5% yield.

Conclusion: PSX earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of four Stars. This quantitatively ranks PSX as a 4-Star Strong stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $148.18 before PSX's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $1,700 minimum that I look for in a stock with 18 years of consecutive dividend increases (including its predecessor companies.) At that price the stock would yield 2.2%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $1,700 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 10.3%. This dividend growth rate is lower than the 12.3% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. PSX has a risk rating of 1.50, which classifies it as a Low risk stock.

PSX is an energy manufacturing and logistics company with midstream, chemicals, refining, and marketing and specialties businesses. The company should reap feedstock advantages from a growing North American crude oil production. Its interests in chemical and midstream assets should boost its long-term returns.

The stock is currently trading well below my calculated fair value price of $135.51. Much of the calculated fair value is derived from a high dividend growth rate. The free cash flow payout of 54% improved from 530%. As such, PSX is an attractive buy at this time and I will put it on my list to consider for future purchases.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I held no position in PSX (0.0% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio). See a list of all my Dividend Growth Portfolio holdings here.

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