Monday, February 3, 2014

Hasbro, Inc. (HAS) Dividend Stock Analysis

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Hasbro, Inc. (HAS). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Hasbro, Incs' broad portfolio of toys, games and entertainment offerings includes brands such as Transformers, Playskool, Monopoly and My Little Pony.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

HAS is trading at a premium to all four valuations above. The stock is trading at a 29.6% premium to its calculated fair value of $39.56. HAS did not earn any Stars in this section.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

HAS earned no Stars in this section. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1981 and has increased its dividend payments for 11 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

HAS earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $4,129. This amount is in excess of the $2,400 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as HAS has. If HAS grows its dividend at 13.0% per year, it will take 2 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 3.68%. HAS earned a check for the Key Metric 'Years to >MMA' since its 2 years is less than the 5 year target.

Memberships and Peers: HAS is a member of the S&P 500. The company's peer group includes: Mattel, Inc. (MAT) with a 3.3% yield, LeapFrog Enterprises Inc. (LF) with a 0.0% yield and JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (JAKK) with a 0.0% yield.

Conclusion: HAS did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, did not earn any Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of one Star. This quantitatively ranks HAS as a 1-Star Very Weak stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $63.05 before HAS's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $2,400 minimum that I look for in a stock with 11 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 2.5%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $2,400 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 11.2%. This dividend growth rate is lower than the 13.0% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. HAS has a risk rating of 2.25 which classifies it as a Medium risk stock.

HAS has a healthy lead in its exposure to the digital and entertainment segment. The company's relationships with Electronic Arts EA, Activision ATVI and The Hub, its joint venture with Discovery, positions its brands consistently to connect with a larger and more diverse audience. The company dominates the big screen arena, generating revenue streams from its licensing businesses (Star Wars, Marvel).

The company enjoys a strong market share position but faces fierce competition and strong buying power of U.S. based toy retailers. The stock is trading above my calculated fair value price of $39.56 and both its debt to total capital (51%) and free cash flow payout (64%) are above my preferred maximums. For now, I will remain on the sidelines.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I held no position in HAS (0.0% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio). See a list of all my dividend growth holdings here.

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Tags: [HAS] [MAT] [LF] [JAKK]