Thursday, July 23, 2015

Johnson Controls, Inc. (JCI) Dividend Stock Analysis

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Johnson Controls, Inc. (JCI). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Johnson Controls Inc. supplies building controls and energy management systems, automotive seating, and batteries.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

JCI is trading at a premium to all four valuations above. When also considering the NPV MMA Differential, the stock is trading at a slight discount to its calculated fair value of $49.93. JCI earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

JCI earned two Stars in this section for 2.) and 3.) above. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. JCI earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1887 and has increased its dividend payments for 23 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

JCI earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $1,844. This amount is in excess of the $1,200 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as JCI has. If JCI grows its dividend at 12.4% per year, it will take 3 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 2.92%. JCI earned a check for the Key Metric 'Years to >MMA' since its 3 years is less than the 5 year target.

Peers: The company’s peer group includes: Autoliv, Inc. (ALV) with a 2.1% yield, Magna International Inc. (MGA) with a 1.6% yield, and Lear Corp. (LEA) with a 1.0% yield.

Conclusion: JCI earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of four Stars. This quantitatively ranks JCI as a 4-Star Strong stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $56.84 before JCI's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $1,200 minimum that I look for in a stock with 23 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 1.8%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $1,200 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 10.8%. This dividend growth rate is below the 12.4% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. JCI has a risk rating of 1.50 which classifies it as a Low risk stock.

JCI has a strong management team and enjoys favorable growth prospects in the building controls markets served. Long-term sales and earnings growth should exceed its peers with greater earnings stability. The company is focused on new growth markets with higher returns, along with an emphasis on its presence in China.

The company has a strong balance sheet, with a low debt to total capital of 42% (up from 37%). However, its free cash flow payout of 70% (up from 59%) is above the 60% I prefer. The stock is trading below my calculated fair value of $49.93. With a yield slightly below my minimum, it is not a candidate for my Dividend Growth Portfolio. However, with dividend growth in excess of 10%, it may fit into my High Dividend Growth Portfolio.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I held no position in JCI (0.0% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio). See a list of all my dividend growth holdings here.

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