Thursday, December 27, 2012

Southside Bancshares Inc. (SBSI) Dividend Stock Analysis

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Southside Bancshares Inc. (SBSI). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Southside Bancshares Inc. owns Southside Bank, which primarily provides financial services to individuals, businesses, municipal entities, and non-profit organizations.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

SBSI is trading at a discount to all four valuations above. The stock is trading at a 24.2% discount to its calculated fair value of $27.97. SBSI earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

SBSI earned two Stars in this section for 1.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. SBSI earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1969 and has increased its dividend payments for 17 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

SBSI earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $3,661. This amount is in excess of the $1,800 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as SBSI has. The stock's current yield of 3.68% exceeds the 2.42% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.

Memberships and Peers: SBSI is and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index. The company’s peer group includes: Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) with a 3.5% yield, First Financial Bankshares Inc. (FFIN) with a 2.5% yield and International Bancshares Corp. (IBOC) with a 2.2% yield.

Conclusion: SBSI earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of four Stars. This quantitatively ranks SBSI as a 4-Star Strong stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $28.96 before SBSI's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $1,800 minimum that I look for in a stock with 17 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 2.7%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $1,800 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 6.9%. This dividend growth rate is below the 9.9% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. SBSI has a risk rating of 2.00 which classifies it as a medium risk stock.

SBSI operates over 35 banking offices in over 12 cities in northeastern Texas. The bank provides a full range of financial services including consumer and commercial loans, loans to municipalities, deposit accounts, trust, personal banking, safe deposit boxes, brokerage services, credit cards, ATM's and an array of electronic services.

I have been watching SBSI for some time. By every metric that I track, SBSI is trading at a discount to its calculated fair value of $27.97. For the most part, it has good dividend fundamentals, including a FCF Payout of only 19%. My hesitation comes from its level of debt. At 79%, SBSI's debt to total capital is well in excess of the 45% maximum that I look for, and it is up from the 75% when I last reviewed the company earlier this year. For now, I will continue to watch from the sidelines.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I held no position in SBSI (0.0% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio). See a list of all my dividend growth holdings here.

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Tags: [SBSI] [CFR] [FFIN] [IBOC]