Thursday, October 18, 2012

Nacco Industries, Inc. (NC) Dividend Stock Analysis

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Nacco Industries, Inc (NC). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Nacco Industries, Inc. conducts business in the areas of lift trucks, housewares, and mining in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

NC is trading at a discount to 3.) and 4.) above. The stock is trading at a 19.6% discount to its calculated fair value of $61.43. NC earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

NC earned two Stars in this section for 2.) and 3.) above. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. NC earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1947 and has increased its dividend payments for 27 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

The NPV MMA Diff. of the $719 is below the $800 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as NC has. The stock's current yield of 4.35% exceeds the 2.42% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.

Memberships and Peers: NC is, a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index and a Dividend Champion. The company's peer group includes: Arch Coal Inc. (ACI) with a 1.6% yield, Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) with a 2.8% yield and iRobot Corporation (IRBT) with a 0.0% yield.

Conclusion: NC earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and did not earn any Stars in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of three Stars. This quantitatively ranks NC as a 3-Star Hold stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to decrease to $47.25 before NC's NPV MMA Differential increased to the $800 minimum that I look for in a stock with 27 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 4.5%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $800 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 1.7%. This dividend growth rate is higher than the 1.2% used in this analysis, thus providing no margin of safety. NC has a risk rating of 1.25 which classifies it as a Low risk stock.

With its relatively high yield and improving dividend metrics, NC has popped up on my list of stocks to watch. Absent one year of negative free cash flows (2008), NC would have been rated a 4-Star stock. Even though the stock is trading nearly a 20% discount to my calculated fair value of $61.43, I am not ready to buy, but will continue to watch it as I perform additional due diligence.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I held no position in NC (0.0% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio). See a list of all my dividend growth holdings here.

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Tags: [NC] [ACI] [SWK] [IRBT]