Company Description: Southern Company is an Atlanta-based energy holding company and is one of the largest producers of electricity in the U.S.
Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number
SO is trading at a premium to all four valuations above. When also considering the NPV MMA Differential, the stock is trading at a 65.4% premium to its calculated fair value of $54.47. SO did not earn any Stars in this section.
Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%
SO earned no Stars in this section. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1948 and has increased its dividend payments for 24 consecutive years.
Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA
The NPV MMA Diff. of the $119 is below the $1,100 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as SO has. If SO grows its dividend at 2.8% per year, it will take 6 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 3.75%.
Peers: The company's peer group includes: NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) with a 2.5% yield, Entergy Corporation (ETR) with a 2.5% yield and CenterPoint Energy, Inc. (CNP) with a 2.3% yield.
Conclusion: SO did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, did not earn any Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and did not earn any Stars in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of zero Star. This quantitatively ranks SO as a 0-Star Avoid stock.
Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to decrease to $54.46 before SO's NPV MMA Differential increased to the $1,100 minimum that I look for in a stock with 24 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 5.4%.
Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $1,100 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 7.9%. This dividend growth rate is higher than the 2.8% used in this analysis, thus providing no margin of safety. SO has a risk rating of 2.00, which classifies it as a Medium risk stock.
The stock is currently trading at a premium to its $54.47 calculated fair value. In addition, the company's high debt to total capital of 66% (up from 65%) and unsustainable free cash flow payout of -179% (prior 459%) will keep me from adding to my position at this time.
Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.
Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in SO (0.2% of my Dividend Growth Stocks Portfolio).
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