Friday, August 31, 2018

Helmerich & Payne Inc. (HP) Dividend Stock Analysis

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Helmerich & Payne Inc. (HP). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Helmerich & Payne, Inc. is the holding company for Helmerich & Payne International Drilling Company, an international drilling contractor.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

HP is trading at a premium to all four valuations above. When also considering the NPV MMA Differential, the stock is trading at a 30.2% premium to its calculated fair value of $50.56. HP did not earn any Stars in this section.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

HP earned two Stars in this section for 2.) and 3.) above. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. HP earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1959 and has increased its dividend payments for 46 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

The NPV MMA Diff. of the $441 is below the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as HP has. The stock's current yield of 4.28% exceeds the 3.01% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.

Peers: The company’s peer group includes: Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR) with a 3.8% yield, Noble Corporation plc (NE) with a 0.0% yield and Transocean Ltd. (RIG) with a 0.0% yield.

Conclusion: HP did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and did not earn any Stars in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of two Stars. This quantitatively ranks HP as a 2-Star Weak stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to decrease to $63.35 before HP's NPV MMA Differential increased to the $3000 minimum that I look for in a stock with 0 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 4.5%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $3000 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 8.2%. This dividend growth rate is higher than the 4.3% used in this analysis, thus providing no margin of safety. HP has a risk rating of 1.75 which classifies it as a Medium risk stock.

HP is engaged in the contract drilling of oil and gas wells in the U.S. and internationally. The company supplies drilling rigs, equipment, personnel, and camps on a contractual basis to explore for and develop oil and gas from onshore areas and from fixed platforms, tension-leg platforms, and spars in offshore areas. HP is viewed as a premium name in their segment. The company is facing significant headwinds from decline in crude oil prices, which is weighing on demand for incremental drilling, even the premium units such as HP's FlexRigs have felt the effects of the downturn.

This is a company I have watched for some time. The stock is trading at a premium from my $50.56 calculated fair value. Its free cash flow payout of 559% (up from 195%) is well above my maximum. Its debt to total capital of 10% is at an acceptable level. The company has not increased its dividend since September 2016. For now, I will continue to watch for improvement in the Free Cash Flow Payout and for a dividend increase.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was held no position in HP (0.0% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio).

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Tags: HP, NBR, NE, RIG,