Tuesday, June 7, 2016

Procter & Gamble (PG) Dividend Stock Analysis

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Procter & Gamble (PG). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: The Procter & Gamble Company is a leading consumer products company that markets household and personal care products in more than 180 countries.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

PG is trading at a premium to all four valuations above. Since PG's tangible book value is not meaningful, a Graham number can not be calculated. When also considering the NPV MMA Differential, the stock is trading at a 11.8% premium to its calculated fair value of $73.79. PG did not earn any Stars in this section.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

PG earned two Stars in this section for 2.) and 3.) above. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. PG earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1891 and has increased its dividend payments for 58 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

PG earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $518. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as PG has. The stock's current yield of 3.22% exceeds the 2.19% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.

Peers: The company’s peer group includes: Clorox Corporation (CLX) with a 2.3% yield, Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL) with a 2.2% yield, and Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB) with a 2.9% yield.

Conclusion: PG did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of three Stars. This quantitatively ranks PG as a 3-Star Hold stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $83.63 before PG's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 58 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 3.2%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 2.3%. This dividend growth rate is lower than the 2.5% used in this analysis, thus providing a slight margin of safety. PG has a risk rating of 1.50 which classifies it as a Medium risk stock.

PG had spread itself too thin. It entered too many emerging markets competing against entrenched competitors and its products failed to catch on. In response, the company intends to divest around 100 brands representing more than half of its existing brands. This will produce a bumpy ride in the near-term, but should lay the foundation for profitable future. The company's goals are to return to 8% to 10% EPS growth and free up funds for reinvestment. Margins should improve in 2016 as manufacturing start-up costs diminish and productivity improvements are realized.

Its free cash flow payout at 63% (down from 69% in the September 2015 review) is above the 60% maximum that I prefer. This is offset with a low debt to total capital of 36%. As my allocation allows, I will continue to moderately add to my PG position when it is trading below or near my calculated fair value of $73.79.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long PG (4.9% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio) and long KMB, CL. See a list of all my Dividend Growth Portfolio holdings here.

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Tags: PG, CLX, CL, KMB,