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Monday, March 31, 2014

General Dynamics (GD) Dividend Stock Analysis

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of General Dynamics (GD). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: General Dynamics is the world's fourth largest military contractor and also one of the world's biggest makers of corporate jets.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

GD is trading at a premium to all four valuations above. The stock is trading at a 49.9% premium to its calculated fair value of $71.45. GD did not earn any Stars in this section.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

GD earned two Stars in this section for 1.) and 2.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1979 and has increased its dividend payments for 23 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA (20-year Treasury bond). Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

The NPV MMA Diff. of the $741 is below the $1,200 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as GD has. If GD grows its dividend at 10.0% per year, it will take 6 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 3.68%.

Memberships and Peers: GD is a member of the S&P 500 and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index. The company's peer group includes: The Boeing Co. (BA) with a 2.4% yield, Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) with a 3.2% yield and Textron Inc. (TXT) with a 0.2% yield.

Conclusion: GD did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and did not earn any Stars in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of two Stars. This quantitatively ranks GD as a 2-Star Weak stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to decrease to $90.95 before GD's NPV MMA Differential increased to the $1,200 minimum that I look for in a stock with 23 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 2.7%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $1,200 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 11.5%. This dividend growth rate is above the 10.0% used in this analysis, thus providing no margin of safety. GD has a risk rating of 1.75 which classifies it as a Medium risk stock.

GD, with its diversified offerings, is in one of the best positions to survive defense spending cuts. The company's Aerospace business continues to enjoy a significant backlog for large-cabin aircraft, and should remain strong over the next several years. There is an opportunity to see margins expand as production becomes increasingly efficient.

The recent $1.1 trillion Omnibus bill passed earlier this year is seen as a positive for defense companies. It provides the Pentagon with nearly $93 billion to buy weapons and another $63 billion for R&D. However, the defense sector will continue to face reduced spending (compared to historical rates) from the Pentagon.

The company has a pristine balance sheet with low free cash flow payout and debt to total capital. GD keeps its yield competitive through annual dividend increases, with the most recent increase of 10.7% coming in March 2014. GD is currently trading above its calculated fair value price of $71.45. This is a solid company and I will continue to look for opportunities to add to my position.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in GD (4.6% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio). See a list of all my dividend growth holdings here.

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Tags: [GD] [BA] [LMT] [TXT]

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