Friday, August 30, 2019

Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Dividend Stock Analysis

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Abbott Laboratories (ABT). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: This diversified health care products company is now focused on nutritionals, diagnostics, generic drugs, and medical devices, following the spinoff of its R&D-based prescription pharmaceuticals business at the beginning of 2013.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

ABT is trading at a premium to all four valuations above. Since ABT's tangible book value is not meaningful, a Graham number can not be calculated. When also considering the NPV MMA Differential, the stock is trading at a 83.4% premium to its calculated fair value of $46.23. ABT did not earn any Stars in this section.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

ABT earned two Stars in this section for 1.) and 2.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1926 and has increased its dividend payments for 47 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

The NPV MMA Diff. of the $31 is below the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as ABT has. If ABT grows its dividend at 6.7% per year, it will take 11 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 2.74%. The 11 years is more than the 10 years maximum I like to see.

Peers: The company's peer group includes: Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) with a 3.4% yield, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) with a 2.9% yield, and Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) with a 2.3% yield.

Conclusion: ABT did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and did not earn any Stars in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of two Stars. This quantitatively ranks ABT as a 2-Star Weak stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to decrease to $54.28 before ABT's NPV MMA Differential increased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 47 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 2.4%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 10.9%. This dividend growth rate is higher than the 6.7% used in this analysis, thus providing no margin of safety. ABT has a risk rating of 1.50 which classifies it as a Low risk stock.

ABT discovers, develops, manufactures and sells health care products. Its products include branded generic pharmaceuticals manufactured internationally, marketed and sold outside the United States. The company enjoys strong positions in several health care product categories and global markets, with a focus on expansion in emerging markets.

The company's free cash flow payout of 46% (up from 44%) is well below my maximum. In addition, its debt to total capital of 43% (down from 47%) is slightly above my preferred maximum of 45%. The stock is trading at a significant premium to my calculated fair value of $46.23. That, its low yield and dividend growth rate keeps me from opening a position in the stock.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I held no position in ABT (0.0% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio) and was long in JNJ. See a list of all my Dividend Growth Portfolio holdings here.

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