Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Realty Income Corp (O) Dividend Stock Analysis

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Realty Income Corp. (O). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Realty Income Corporation is an equity real estate investment trust that owns commercial retail real estate properties in the United States.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

O is trading at a premium to all four valuations above. When also considering the NPV MMA Differential, the stock is trading at a 9.7% premium to its calculated fair value of $58.56. O did not earn any Stars in this section.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

O earned two Stars in this section for 2.) and 3.) above. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. O earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1994 and has increased its dividend payments for 22 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

O earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $1,421. This amount is in excess of the $1,300 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as O has. The stock's current yield of 3.75% exceeds the 1.81% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.

Peers: The company's peer group includes: The DDR Corp. (DDR) with a 4.0% yield, National Retail Properties, Inc. (NNN) with a 3.5% yield and The Macerich Company (MAC) with a 3.3% yield.

Conclusion: O did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of three Stars. This quantitatively ranks O as a 3-Star Hold stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $67.13 before O's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $1,300 minimum that I look for in a stock with 22 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 3.6%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $1,300 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 4.4%. This dividend growth rate is higher than the 4.9% used in this analysis, thus providing slight margin of safety. O has a risk rating of 1.25 which classifies it as a Low risk stock.

O follows a conservative strategy which has led to it being one of the best-positioned REITs with a capacity to make additional acquisitions. Its tenants sign long-term leases with regular rent bumps that allows O to provides a reliable, slow-growing, monthly dividend. The company is well-managed has delivered consistent growth over time.

After enjoying falling interest rates and rising consumer spending for the last 20+ years, O is preparing for a more challenging environment by upgrading its tenants to investment-grade and adding on some nonretail assets. Investment-grade tenants are more likely to honor lease commitments during the initial lease term.

The company's debt to total capital of 42% (down from 43% in my last review) is slightly below my 45% maximum. Its free cash flow payout of -248% (previously -96%) is not sustainable over the long-term. The stock is currently trading at a 13.2% premium to my calculated fair value of $58.56. As such, I will not significantly add to my position at this time.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in O (3.2% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio). See a list of all my Dividend Growth Portfolio holdings here.

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Tags: O, DDR, NNN, MAC,