Wednesday, February 18, 2015

General Dynamics (GD) Dividend Stock Analysis

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of General Dynamics (GD). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: General Dynamics is the world's fourth largest military contractor and also one of the world's biggest manufacturers of corporate jets.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

GD is trading at a premium to all four valuations above. Since GD's tangible book value is not meaningful, a Graham number can not be calculated. When also considering the NPV MMA Differential, the stock is trading at a 52.8% premium to its calculated fair value of $90.06. GD did not earn any Stars in this section.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

GD earned three Stars in this section for 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. GD earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1979 and has increased its dividend payments for 24 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA (20-year Treasury bond). Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

The NPV MMA Diff. of the $724 is below the $1,100 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as GD has. If GD grows its dividend at 10.0% per year, it will take 4 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 2.47%. GD earned a check for the Key Metric 'Years to >MMA' since its 4 years is less than the 5 year target.

Memberships and Peers: GD is a member of the S&P 500 and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index. The company's peer group includes: The Boeing Co. (BA) with a 2.5% yield, Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) with a 3.0% yield and Textron Inc. (TXT) with a 0.2% yield.

Conclusion: GD did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned three Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and did not earn any Stars in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of three Stars. This quantitatively ranks GD as a 3-Star Hold stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to decrease to $115.58 before GD's NPV MMA Differential increased to the $1,100 minimum that I look for in a stock with 24 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 2.2%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $1,200 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 11.6%. This dividend growth rate is above the 10.0% used in this analysis, thus providing no margin of safety. GD has a risk rating of 1.75 which classifies it as a Medium risk stock.

GD, with its diversified offerings, is in one of the best positions to survive defense spending cuts. The company's Aerospace business continues to enjoy a significant backlog for large-cabin aircraft, and should remain strong over the next several years. This should continue with the production ramp up of its new G650 and G280 models.

Since the start of 2014, GD has enjoyed consistent contract wins and a stable performance. This has been reflected in it share price performance as evidenced in establishing new 52-week highs. The company continued this trend in February with the announcement of its C4 Systems business unit winning a $415 million contract to provide acquisition lifecycle support to U.S. Army product managers. The contract runs through Feb 5, 2020.

In a separate announcement, GD's board of directors approved a $10 million share buyback program. In the prior year the company spent about $3.4 billion on share repurchases. In 2014, GD returned $4.2 billion to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks.

The company has a pristine balance sheet with low free cash flow payout and debt to total capital. GD keeps its yield competitive through annual dividend increases. GD is currently trading above its calculated fair value price of $90.06. This is a solid company and I will continue to look for opportunities to add to my position.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in GD (5.0% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio). See a list of all my dividend growth holdings here.

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Tags: GD, BA, LMT, TXT,

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