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Monday, March 5, 2012

Chevron Corporation (CVX) Dividend Stock Analysis

This article originally appeared on The DIV-Net February 27, 2012.

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Chevron Corporation (CVX). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Chevron Corporation is a global integrated oil company (formerly ChevronTexaco) with interests in exploration, production, refining and marketing, and petrochemicals.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

CVX is trading at a discount to 3.) and 4.) above. The stock is trading at a 16.5% premium to its calculated fair value of $91.53. CVX did not earn any Stars in this section.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

CVX earned two Stars in this section for 2.) and 3.) above. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. CVX earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1912 and has increased its dividend payments for 25 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

The NPV MMA Diff. of the $487 is below the $1,000 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as CVX has. If CVX grows its dividend at 4.9% per year, it will take 1 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 3.1%. CVX earned a check for the Key Metric 'Years to >MMA' since its 1 years is less than the 5 year target.

Memberships and Peers: CVX is a member of the S&P 500 a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index. The company's peer group includes: BP plc (BP) with a 4.2% yield, Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) with a 2.2% yield and ConocoPhillips (COP) with a 3.6% yield.

Conclusion: CVX did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and did not earn any Stars in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of two Stars. This quantitatively ranks CVX as a 2-Star Weak stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to decrease to $83.08 before CVX's NPV MMA Differential increased to the $1,000 minimum that I look for in a stock with 25 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 3.9%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $1,000 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 7.3%. This dividend growth rate is well above the 4.9% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. CVX has a risk rating of 1.50 which classifies it as a Low risk stock.

CVX is reducing its refining footprint and focusing on large, long-lived upstream projects with higher margins and growth potential. As with other large multinationals, the company is finding it increasingly difficult to add reserves. Much of the remaining easily accessible reserves are owned by governments and national oil companies. As a result, CVX is focusing more on deepwater exploration.

The company's financials are generally good. Several metrics are just outside my desired range. Though its free cash flow payout is below my 60% maximum, CVX had one year of negative free cash flow during the last 10 which prevents it from earning a star. Also, it is trading at a premium to my $91.53 calculated fair value. The stock has treated me well in the past, but for now, I plan to wait on a better entry point.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in CVX (2.1% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio). See a list of all my dividend growth holdings here.

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- The 2012 Dividend Achievers
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Tags: [CVX] [BP] [XOM] [COP]

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